A MULTI-FACTOR SCORING APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN
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small business##common.commaListSeparator## risk management##common.commaListSeparator## multi-factor scoring model##common.commaListSeparator## IHEI##common.commaListSeparator## Delphi method##common.commaListSeparator## CVP analysis##common.commaListSeparator## Uzbekistan##common.commaListSeparator## Namangan##common.commaListSeparator## financial stability##common.commaListSeparator## operating leverage##common.commaListSeparator## ISO 31000##common.commaListSeparator## econometric forecastingAnnotatsiya
Small business entities are disproportionately exposed to operational and financial risks owing to constrained resource bases and heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations. This study proposes and validates a composite multi-factor scoring model — the Integral Hazard Exposure Index (IHEI) — designed to enable rapid, actionable risk classification of small enterprises. The IHEI integrates four financial indicators: profitability ratio relative to a benchmark (Ri), coverage-fund coefficient relative to a benchmark (Ki), financial-strength margin relative to a benchmark (Mi), and an inverse operating-leverage metric (Oi), with weights determined through a twelve-expert Delphi survey. The model is empirically applied to three small textile enterprises operating in the Namangan region of Uzbekistan — IMIR GROUP, IMRON TEXTILE GROUP, and RAUF-AZIZ — using 2024 CVP-analysis data, yielding IHEI scores of 0.885, 0.848, and 0.809, respectively, classifying them in risk zones B and C. Application of the model at Nafis Tex Group LLC improved the financial-stability integral indicator 2.5-fold (from 0.0724 to 0.1798), increased overall profitability by 4.1 percentage points, and reversed a working-capital deficit of −491 million UZS to a surplus of +4.1 billion UZS by 2025. Regression analysis confirms that accounts-receivable velocity, inventory volume, and credit interest rate explain 88% of liquidity variance (R² = 0.88). Regional macroeconomic risk factors are ranked through Delphi-based expert scoring of ten indicators, identifying import growth and investment volatility as the dominant threats to small enterprises in Namangan. The paper concludes with a proactive ISO 31000-aligned mitigation framework and a 2030 econometric forecast projecting IHEI improvement to 0.95+
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